The province announced on March 20, 2026, that Brandon and the Assiniboine River basin face a moderate risk of flooding this spring. According to Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure, most rivers in the province are expected to stay within their banks as long as the weather remains normal or favourable.
Local community dikes in Brandon are built at elevations high enough to protect homes and businesses against the water levels expected this year. Experts noted that soil moisture across the region was near or below normal when the ground froze last year. This, combined with shallow frost, should allow the melting snow to soak into the earth more easily.
As of mid-March, river flows near the city were higher than usual because water is being released from the Shellmouth Dam to prepare for the runoff. While the current outlook is manageable, officials warned that a sudden fast melt or heavy spring rain could still push water levels higher than expected.
The Manitoba Emergency Management Organization is currently working with local leaders to review safety plans and prepare resources. Residents are also encouraged to stay off all provincial waterways as ice conditions become unstable with warmer temperatures.
