The Rural Municipality of Morris, including the communities of Rosenort and Aubigny, is under a special weather statement as Environment Canada warns heavy rain could drench the region starting Monday night and lasting through Tuesday. The weather office says 10 to 40 mm of rain is likely across the area, with some places possibly seeing much higher amounts if thunderstorms stall overhead.
The rain is expected to move in from Saskatchewan, with showers and thunderstorms intensifying as they push east. Environment Canada says it is likely some of these heavier downpours will slow down or park themselves over parts of southwest Manitoba, leading to higher totals in places like Rosenort and Aubigny. The Tuesday forecast shows a risk of thunderstorms and another 10 to 20 mm of rain.
The statement was issued early Monday morning because of recent heavy rainfalls across southern Manitoba watersheds. The ground is already saturated from severe storms earlier in June, when Stonewall got 255.1 mm of rain in just 24 hours. That storm caused flash flooding, road washouts and power outages for about 25,000 homes and businesses. With the soil still waterlogged, any additional heavy rain will run off quickly, raising the risk of flooding in low-lying areas.
Morris is protected by a ring dike system built to hold back floodwaters from the Red River. During the 2009 flood, these dikes prevented an estimated $700 million in damage across several communities. But Environment Canada’s warning focuses on overland flooding from heavy rain, not river flooding. The main concern is for hazardous driving conditions and water pooling on roads and in low spots.
Residents are being told to keep an eye on local forecasts and be ready for changing conditions. Environment Canada says the statement may be updated if the heaviest rain is expected to shift. As of Monday afternoon, conditions at nearby Emerson were warm and breezy, with a temperature of 21.2°C and a southeast wind at 10 km/h, but the falling barometric pressure (101.9 kPa) points to the approaching storm system.
