Manitoba’s official weather-predicting puppet, Manitoba Merv, saw his shadow on February 2, 2026 at the Oak Hammock Marsh Interpretive Centre in Stonewall, signalling six more weeks of winter rather than an early spring for residents in Carman, Manitoba. The announcement, made as part of Oak Hammock Marsh’s Groundhog Day/World Wetlands Day programming, came amid variable temperatures and local reports of melting snow in parts of the Pembina Valley.
The annual tradition at Oak Hammock Marsh is a lighthearted seasonal ritual tied to folklore: if the groundhog (or in Manitoba’s case, a puppet mascot) sees its shadow, tradition says winter will continue for about six more weeks; if it does not, spring is said to arrive early. Oak Hammock Marsh posted on its social channels that “Merv just saw his shadow,” a result picked up by local media.
Local news outlets and community bulletins have reported thawing and wet conditions in parts of the Pembina Valley, including puddles and localized slippery surfaces that prompted safety reminders for drivers and pedestrians. Reporters and the centre’s organizers noted the event coincided with these changing conditions, though local forecasts and conditions vary from place to place.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s local forecasts for Southern Manitoba show temperature variability in early February 2026; while some areas experienced above‑normal daytime readings, forecasters caution that February thaws can be followed by sudden returns of cold and freezing conditions, a common risk on the Prairies.
For farmers around Carman, the timing of melts is important for planning the upcoming seeding season. Manitoba Merv has been the province’s Groundhog Day mascot for roughly 30 years and is locally touted as a weather tradition. The centre uses the annual event to draw attention to World Wetlands Day programming and wetland conservation messaging.
