Residents in Carman, Manitoba, are bracing for a volatile weather shift this week as a dangerous deep freeze is forecast to give way to a rapid thaw by Feb. 5, 2026. The sudden change could lead to hazardous road conditions, localized flooding and the formation of black ice in low-lying areas.
According to Environment Canada, tonight’s low for Carman is forecast near −23°C with wind chill values making it feel like about −33°C overnight — conditions Environment Canada flags as carrying a risk of frostbite on exposed skin in minutes. Temperatures are then expected to climb through the week, with a high near 6°C forecast for Thursday, Feb. 5 — a rise of roughly 29 degrees in a few days.
Town of Carman Public Works is responsible for drainage in town; with deep ground frost a rapid snowmelt cannot be absorbed quickly, increasing the risk of pooled water and black ice. Historically, sudden thaws can overwhelm catch basins and frozen culverts, and local crews may need to clear drains and culverts to help water flow and reduce flood risk.
Drivers on Highway 3 and PR 245 should check Manitoba 511 for up-to-the-minute road-condition updates, as rapid thawing can produce frost boils, soft spots and deep ruts that damage rural road surfaces and make driving hazardous.
Prairie Rose School Division’s inclement weather policy (T201) sets school-closure decisions at an actual temperature threshold of −36°C; the division also notes that bus drivers retain the authority to cancel individual routes if localized road conditions (for example, muddy or unsafe gravel roads) make travel unsafe.
Agriculture experts writing in the Manitoba Co-operator and other livestock guides are urging producers to watch their animals closely during the transition. Cattle and young calves need extra energy intake to withstand extreme cold, and sudden swings from extreme cold to above-freezing can stress animals and contribute to health problems if not managed carefully.
Residents and drivers should monitor Environment Canada forecasts, Manitoba 511 and local municipal notices for updates, and follow local public-works and school-division guidance as conditions change.
