Residents of Dawson Creek, British Columbia, are watching forecasts that show growing odds of an El Niño pattern developing in 2026 — a shift that could bring warmer, drier conditions and complicate local efforts to rebuild exhausted water reserves.
Forecasters at The Weather Network said in January 2026 that La Niña was expected to fade and that there are increasing chances an El Niño could build by the summer of 2026. The outlet emphasized the uncertainty around timing and the strength of any event, but noted the odds of El Niño had risen. (The Weather Network)
The potential shift matters because Dawson Creek has been managing a multi-year drought and an active State of Local Emergency (SOLE) over its water supply. The city declared the SOLE on Oct. 14, 2025 and renewed emergency powers into January 2026 to keep response tools active while contingency plans proceed. (City of Dawson Creek; CBC News)
The Kiskatinaw River — the city’s only source of drinking water, serving roughly 15,000 people — has suffered record-low flows in recent years. Officials and hydrologists warn that a combination of very low flows and extreme cold could cause the river to “freeze off” and effectively stop surface intake operations, which is why the SOLE remains in place. (CBC News; The Tyee)
To prepare, the city has been advancing a temporary overland water transfer: a plan to lay lay-flat hoses along highway corridors from the Peace River and pump water into Dawson Creek’s system if reservoir levels fall. City communications say the team is preparing to mobilize and begin laying the temporary hose so pumping could begin in early 2026 if needed. Mayor Darcy Dober has said the municipality is taking short-term emergency steps to secure water for winter while pursuing longer-term infrastructure solutions. (City of Dawson Creek; city press releases)
Snowpack and streamflow data are mixed and time-dependent. The BC River Forecast Centre’s April 1, 2024 bulletin showed the Peace region at about 65% of normal snowpack for that date, signaling elevated drought hazard at the time. However, a Jan. 1, 2026 provincial snow survey reported the Peace region’s snowpack was above normal (about 142% of normal) after heavy snowfall in late 2025. Despite that winter improvement, hydrologist Allan Chapman’s analysis published in The Tyee found 2025 produced one of the lowest summer discharges in a 60-year record (ranked second-lowest), following other anomalously low years — a pattern that continues to concern water managers. (BC River Forecast Centre via EnergeticCity; CBC News; The Tyee)
In short: forecasters now see a rising chance of El Niño by mid-2026, which typically tends toward warmer and drier conditions for parts of western Canada. Dawson Creek’s leaders say they must plan for multiple scenarios — including the risk that a rapid transition from a cold La Niña winter to a warm, dry El Niño summer could reduce spring runoff — and they are continuing emergency preparations while pursuing a longer-term pipeline to the Peace River.
(Reporting based on The Weather Network, City of Dawson Creek updates, CBC News and reporting in The Tyee.)
