Residents in Morris, Manitoba, are preparing for a sudden warm-up this week as Environment Canada is forecasting a high near 6°C on Thursday, February 5, 2026. That is about a 15-degree jump above the typical February average of about −9°C and follows a period of sustained deep freeze, prompting concern about early snowmelt and icy road conditions.
Warm air moving in from the south and west is disrupting the usual Arctic air mass over the eastern prairies. While the milder weather offers a brief respite from extreme cold, it raises immediate risks for drivers on PTH 75 (Highway 75) and can cause water to pond on top of frozen ground. Local crews may need to clear ice and snow from culverts and drainage pipes to ensure meltwater can flow once thawing begins.
Staff at the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre are watching the event to assess implications for the spring flood outlook. According to the province’s 2025 Fall Conditions Report, soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal to above normal in parts of southern Manitoba, including areas of the Red River basin. A rapid mid-winter melt can create ‘ice layering’ in the snowpack or ponding that refreezes, conditions that can contribute to ice jams or complicate the spring melt.
The Town of Morris is protected by a ring dike system that was first built in 1966 and upgraded after the 1997 flood. While the short thaw alone is unlikely to trigger a major rise of the Red River, residents remain cautious because sudden weather swings in the past have led to significant flooding. Local farmers are also monitoring conditions closely, since an ice crust on top of snow can affect fields and winter crops.
Temperatures are forecast to fall quickly again, with a return toward −15°C by Friday. That rapid refreeze means any melted snow or slush is likely to freeze into ice, making roads and sidewalks very slippery. Drivers and pedestrians are advised to exercise caution through the end of the week.
