The Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority (NPCA) has issued a Water Safety Statement for Port Colborne’s Lake Erie shoreline effective December 18, 2025, warning of strong westerly winds, a moderate storm surge and waves of two to three metres that could push water levels near local flooding thresholds.
The notice is in effect until 9:00 AM on Saturday, December 20, 2025. Sustained westerly winds of around 60 km/h with gusts up to 90 km/h are expected on Friday. Combined with the storm surge, wave heights could reach 2 to 3 metres along the eastern end of the lake.
Forecasters say a potent low-pressure system moving through southern Ontario will push water from the western basin toward Port Colborne, a seiche that could briefly raise local water levels just below local flooding thresholds (about 175.5–176.0 metres above sea level).
Shoreline residents, waterfront businesses and recreational users are urged to stay away from piers, breakwalls and beaches because of the risk of shoreline erosion and dangerous waves. The NPCA said it will continue to monitor conditions and update the public if levels rise further.
Similar December wind events in 2022 and 2023 have previously produced surge-related impacts in Port Colborne, notably the 2022 “Christmas Blizzard,” which caused significant surge-related damage and road closures. This week’s water levels are expected to remain just below the local flood threshold.
For the NPCA notice and updates, see: https://npca.ca/flood-status.
