The Saanich Peninsula Chamber of Commerce says Statistics Canada data show a 7% drop in the population aged 15–64 on the Peninsula between the 2016 and 2021 censuses, and the Chamber warns the region could lose up to 27% of its workforce by 2036 unless housing costs are addressed.
The Chamber says Statistics Canada census data underlie its finding that the number of people aged 15–64 in Sidney, North Saanich and Central Saanich fell by about 7% between 2016 and 2021. In one of the Chamber’s projections the working population would fall from about 22,485 to 17,937 by 2033; the Chamber has also warned of a larger, up-to-27% decline by 2036 if no action is taken.
Executive Director Al Smith says municipal zoning that favoured low-density, single-family development over rental and multi-unit housing has contributed to high prices and pushed younger workers away. He is urging municipalities to allow higher-density housing and is calling for roughly 10,000 new housing units; the Chamber links that target to the federal affordability benchmark of about 30% of household income spent on housing.
The Chamber’s survey of more than 300 local businesses found many reporting vacant positions and difficulty recruiting staff who cannot afford to live locally. The Chamber warns those shortages could deepen in the coming decade — its reports include projections of a roughly 20% loss by around 2033 in one scenario and up to 27% by 2036 in its updated analysis — putting shops and services on the Peninsula at risk of severe labour shortfalls if municipal policies do not change.
