Residents of Southampton, New Brunswick, should note the Groundhog Day results — but not because Shubenacadie Sam predicted six more weeks of winter. The Shubenacadie Wildlife Park cancelled its public Groundhog Day event on Monday, Feb. 2, 2026, because of a forecast for blowing snow and unsafe driving conditions. Park and provincial officials said Sam remained in her burrow; under the folklore, Sam not emerging or not seeing a shadow is taken to mean an early spring.
Although Sam is historically the first North American groundhog to make a yearly prediction (the event is traditionally held at 8:00 a.m. AST), she did not make a public forecast in 2026. Other Canadian prognosticators had mixed results on Feb. 2: Wiarton Willie and Quebec’s Fred la Marmotte both reportedly did not see their shadows (signalling an early spring by tradition), while Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter.
Local climate data show February is typically a cold month in the region — averages cited for New Brunswick put February maximums slightly below freezing with much colder overnight lows — and early February 2026 included significant winter-storm warnings in parts of the Maritimes. For a rural community such as Southampton in York County, where farming and forestry are important parts of the local economy, extended winter conditions in some years can delay the start of outdoor spring work.
That said, Groundhog Day is a folkloric tradition rather than a meteorological tool. Scientific assessments are mixed: some localized reviews have highlighted periods when individual animals appeared to perform better than others, but a peer-reviewed 2021 study concluded that groundhog predictions overall perform no better than chance. Residents should treat the day as cultural pageantry and look to meteorological agencies for official forecasts and travel warnings.
